Many mineral owners wonder if waiting will get them more money. Here's how to think through the decision and what factors actually matter.
"Should I sell now or wait?" is perhaps the most common question mineral owners ask. It's natural to wonder if holding out will result in a better outcome. Maybe prices will rise. Maybe new drilling will increase your income. Maybe waiting just feels safer than making a big decision.
The truth is, there's no universal answer. But there are concrete factors you can evaluate to make an informed decision for your specific situation.
Key insight: The best time to sell isn't about timing the market perfectly. It's about understanding whether selling now serves your goals better than the alternatives.
There are legitimate reasons why waiting might make sense for your situation:
A well is about to be drilled on your property
Permits have been filed in your area
New production will increase your income
Current royalty income meets your needs
No immediate need for capital
Strong lease terms protect your interests
Note: "Waiting for prices to go up" is different from waiting for concrete development. Price speculation is difficult; waiting for a permitted well is based on facts.
There are equally compelling reasons why selling sooner may be the better choice:
All wells decline over time
Waiting means less production to sell
Decline is fastest in early years
Commodity prices are unpredictable
Operators can change or struggle
Development plans can shift
Capital can work for you elsewhere
Simplify finances and estate
Eliminate ongoing management
Remove commodity price exposure
Avoid potential lease issues
Convert uncertainty to certainty
This is perhaps the most overlooked factor when deciding whether to wait. Every producing well declines over time, and the decline is steepest early in the well's life.
First 2-3 years: Wells often decline 60-70%
Ongoing: 5-15% annual decline typical thereafter
Result: Time works against you in producing situations
Example: If your well produces 100 barrels today, it might produce only 40 barrels next year
Impact: Even if prices rise 20%, you may still receive less
Bottom line: Waiting a year often means having less production to sell, which directly reduces the value of your minerals regardless of what happens to commodity prices.
Despite the decline reality, there are scenarios where waiting is the right call:
Imminent development: A well is scheduled to be drilled in the next 6-12 months that will add new production
No capital needs: You don't have a use for the money and enjoy receiving royalty checks
Non-producing situation: Your minerals are unleased and you're waiting for development to reach your area
Historically low prices: Current commodity prices are at multi-year lows (but be careful with this reasoning)
Rather than guessing, work through these steps:
Step 1: Get a current valuation
Know what your minerals are worth today. This gives you a baseline for comparison and helps you recognize whether any offer is reasonable.
Step 2: Consider your personal circumstances
Do you have a use for the capital? Would it meaningfully improve your life? Are there goals you could achieve by selling?
Step 3: Understand the production trajectory
Are your wells new and declining rapidly, or mature and stable? Is new development likely?
Step 4: Evaluate the opportunity cost
What else could you do with the capital? Would it generate better returns elsewhere?
Step 5: Make a decision based on facts, not speculation
"Prices might go up" is speculation. "I could pay off my mortgage" is a fact. Base your decision on things you can know and control.
It depends on several factors. Commodity prices may rise or fall, but production from existing wells declines over time. For producing properties, the decline in production often outpaces any price increases. Non-producing properties may increase in value if development occurs, but there's no guarantee of when or if that will happen.
Prices could go up or down after you sell. Trying to time the market is difficult for professional traders and nearly impossible for individual owners. Focus on whether selling meets your current needs rather than trying to predict future prices. The certainty of today's value may be worth more than speculative future gains.
Production decline significantly affects value. Most wells experience their steepest decline in the first 2-3 years, often dropping 60-70% from peak production. Each year you wait typically means less production to sell, which directly reduces the value of your minerals regardless of commodity prices.
Risks include declining production reducing your income and property value, unfavorable commodity price movements, operator changes or financial troubles, changing development plans in your area, and opportunity cost of capital that could be working for you elsewhere.
Start by getting a current valuation to understand what your minerals are worth today. Consider your personal circumstances and whether you have an immediate need for capital. Evaluate the production trajectory of your wells and any pending development. Make a decision based on facts and your specific situation rather than speculation about future prices.
The first step in making any decision is knowing where you stand. Get a free, no-obligation evaluation of your mineral rights.
Get Your Free EvaluationOr call us at (817) 778-9532
Disclaimer: This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Mineral rights values and market conditions vary. Consult with qualified professionals for advice specific to your circumstances.